Month: September 2003

Howard Kurtz poked fun at his media counterparts in a Wasthington Post editorial today, shedding light on how the media-as-entertainment hypes events to new heights of fear when, truthfully, they’re really not that bad.

“As the storm of hype continues, bear two other things in mind. First, Isabel is a Category 2 event. Sixty-five worse storms — Categories 3, 4, and 5 — have made landfall in the United States in the past century, according to NOAA . The media is so disaster-hype-prone at the moment — partly because disaster predictions keep the ever-larger demographic of senior citizens glued to the tube — that Isabel will be spoken of as some kind of weather event without precedent. It’s been worse 65 times in the last century.

“Second, you’ll hear that property damage is unprecedented. This will be cited by hype-meisters to justify the notion of Isabel as a phenomenal mega-event, and cited by enviros to back claims the hurricanes are increasing in intensity. But of course property damage will set new records: property is becoming more valuable. Between inflation, the strong market in housing values and a 30-year trend of building upscale housing in coastal areas, with each passing year, what stands in the paths of hurricane is simply worth more. All the National Weather Service record-damage hurricanes (Andrew, $26.5 billion, 1992; Hugo, $7 billion, 1989; Floyd, $4.5 billion, 1999; Fran, $3.2 billion, 1996; Opal, $3 billion, 1995) are recent. This is a result of rising property values, not rising storm intensity.”

Coincidentally, I watched Michael Moore’s Bowling for Columbine, in which his central theme is the idea that fear is in large part respnsible for our odd view of guns, and that this overwhelming sense of fear is due to the overhyped media. Sesnationalized infotainment such as “Summer of the Shark”, escalators that can kill, and other ridiculous oddities receive outsized coverage. In fact, there was a 20/20 special in the last year or two that essentially makes the same point. Ratings, in short number, trumpet any need to feel responsible by the media to actually put forth measured responses. Except in politics, where lies repeated en masse are sufficient in determining what may be true.

Wow, according to the NY Times, another acknowledgement of misleading by our “Fearless Leader”.

Mr. Cheney, on “Meet the Press” on NBC-TV, was asked about polls that showed that a majority of Americans believed that Mr. Hussein had been involved in the attacks.

Mr. Bush, asked by a reporter today about that statement, said, “No, we’ve had no evidence that Saddam Hussein was involved with September the 11th,” a far more definitive statement than the vice president’s.

So, yesterday would live up to the definition of a bad day. First, most of my workday was spent in frustration trying to make a new development model actually function as expected. Then, Continental devalued their Frequent Flyer program for next year by having the mileage awarded for discount economy fares, essentially doubling the amount of flying necessary to reach each elite tier. So, all the flying I’ve done to hit the top tier status this year is a wash for next year, except for potentially receiving complimentary status on the airline I switch to.

Then, on the way home, I was rear-ended on Route 22, only confirming my fears that yes, indeed, this road will be the death of me. Even more unfortunate was the fact that I was propelled by the car behind me in to the car in front of me. So, as if November wasn’t bad enough, now this. The rear of my car visually isn’t in terrible shape, but the front passenger side headlight, hood, and left body panel all likely need to be replaced. Plus there was some additional fluid leaking.

To cap off the day, Bryan sent me an IM informing me that my web site was hacked. My apologies for anyone trying to access the site. This has been corrected now, and my hosting provider informs me they have since patched their servers.

A Federal Appeals Court has granted a preliminary injunction to delay the October recall election in California.

The first factor in a preliminary injunction analysis is the probability that the plaintiff will succeed on the merits. Under the continuum analysis of Clear Channel, the greater the demonstrated harm, the lesser the requirement of probability of success. Here, the district court assumed irreparable harm, and we agree with its assumption. As the district court properly observed, Plaintiffs will have no remedy for their claims following the election. The district court concluded that the Plaintiffs had no likelihood of success on the merits of their claims as a matter of substance, and further concluded that the claims were likely barred by the doctrines of res judicata and laches. We respectfully disagree and conclude that the district court erred in its legal analysis.

In this case, Plaintiffs’ Equal Protection Clause claim mirrors the one recently analyzed by the Supreme Court in Bush v. Gore, 531 U.S. 98 (2000). As the Supreme Court held in that case: “Having once granted the right to vote on equal terms, the State may not, by later arbitrary and disparate treatment, value one person’s vote over that of another.” Id. at 104-05 (citing Harper v. Virginia Bd. of Elections, 383 U.S. 663, 665 (1966)). This holding was consistent with a long line of Supreme Court precedent holding that the right to vote includes the right to have one’s vote counted.

Hurricane Isabel is apporaching the East Coast and could make landfall somewhere along the Mid-Altantic coastline. I’m watching in anticipation, given the saturation of the ground from all the regular rainfall we’ve received and that in 1999, Floyd caused flooding that filled the basement of the house I’m living in and hit my neighborhood pretty hard. While I lament the destruction of property, I’m always enthralled by natural disasters, especially when I’m experiencing them up close.

In other news, Cheney lied to the media again, rehasing old, discredited arguments for the war against Iraq. The WaPo takes him to task on several points, such as the Atta-Iraq connection, stating

An FBI investigation concluded that Atta was apparently in Florida at the time of the alleged meeting, and the CIA has always doubted it took place. Czech authorities, who first mentioned the alleged meeting in October 2001 to U.S. officials, have since said they no longer are certain the individual in the video of the supposed meeting was Atta. Meanwhile, in July, the U.S. military captured the Iraqi intelligence officer who was supposed to have met Atta and has not obtained confirmation from him.

Then we have the familiar line about the mobile weapons labs. Unfortunately, there is once again evidence to the contrary.

The CIA report on the trucks said their “most likely use” was for biological weapons, though other scientists who have studied them in Baghdad, including the late British scientist David Kelly, doubted that finding.

And there’s a myriad of other allegations and exchanges, such as this one…

Cheney also spoke of a “a gentleman” who had come forward “with full designs for a process centrifuge system to enrich uranium and the key parts that you need to build such a system.” The man, Iraqi scientist Mahdi Obeidi, had denied that the nuclear program had been reconstituted after 1991.

…that are simply contrary to what is known. All in all, I’d say Cheney is either senile as old age sets in or he’s simply not reading the memos. Believing something to be true, unfortunately for him, doesn’t make it true, no matter how hard you try.

The Department of Energy released the results of their initial investigation in to the blackout. The report provides a timeline of events affecting the major transmission lines of the power grid from about noon until the actual blackout occurred.

What I found most interesting is two events that were natural causes that, if implicated as playing a large role in either the cause of the blackout, or at least in widening the scope, would highlight the fragility of the system. At 2:02 PM, a 345 kV transmission line in southwestern Ohio disconnted because of a brush fire. At 3:23 PM, another 345 kV transmission line between northern and eastern Ohio (one of three that disconnected during this time frame) disconnected due to contact with a tree. Did these two lines have any role? I don’t know, but I would like to see the conclusions of the report to find out.

BMG announced they’re releasing CDs in the United States for the first time with the “next-generation” copy protection. If this is anything like the irritating copy protection on my Ayumi Hamasaki CDs, where I can’t copy them to my iPod, I’ll pass.

An EFF attorney argues that network administrators should configure their networks so as not to be able to identified who aspecific individual was using an IP address on the network. This would prevent the universities from being able to turn over infringers to the RIAA when the RIAA “comes a-knockin'”.

There is a legitamate concern about following such advice, however. The one that stands out in my mind is that of being able to identified those users who engaged in some other destructive activity, such as releasing a virus or peforming some form of illegal hacking. Without the type of logging this attorney is arguing against, it would be far more difficult to identify who exactly was responsible. I have also heard, though I am unsure if it is true, that at least partial liability could rest with the provider, especially in a case like this, which could open the door to civil actions.

In truth, I have a difficult time understanding why someone would leave their network open, especially of the wireless category. It strikes me as far too easy for a person piggybacking off your access for a few minutes could easily pass along or perform some action and leave you holding the bag, while you have no idea who did it or when. While is why I was so amused in Narita airport when I saw the free Wireless Internet offer for those who don’t have their own PCs. It would be far too easy for someone to land, hop on a laptop, perform some action, and hop on to their next flight. There’s no request for logging in, the laptops are merely sitting there waiting to be used. Restricted, in some ways, of course, but I’m sure that wouldn’t stop someone really dedicated. Go figure.

Finally, I’ve heard a fair amount of outrage over the RIAA’s campaign to sue children and grandparents over copyright infringement. If you want to make a difference, though, you need to hit them where it hurts: in the pocket. That’s why, if you’re angry over the lawsuits, your best bet is to boycott these labels. Buy used music, or don’t buy any at all.

There was one item I forgot to add in my Hong Kong posting yesterday. People have asked about SARS-related measures that I may have encountered. As it turns out, at border crossings, such as aiport immigration and the immigration lines at the ferry terminals in Hong Kong and Macau, as well as other public places such as museums, there were thermal imaging devices in place as well as someone watching to perform additional fever checks. You often had to stop upon attempting to gain entrance to stand in a spot while they scan you to verify that you don’t have a fever. Whether effective or not, it does provide a sense of relief that the authorities are at least on the look-out.

I’ve heard this echoed elsewhere, and I’ll echo it here too. I was reading a WaPo article on the recall, and nowhere did they mention the polling on the first question, namely whether to recall Gray Davis. Instead they already appear to have made the assumption that yes, of course, Gray Davis will be recalled.

The nonpartisan California Field Poll showed Bustamante with 30 percent, Schwarzenegger with 25 percent and McClintock with 13 percent. With McClintock out, the poll had Schwarzenegger narrowly leading Bustamante, 33 percent to 31 percent, a statistical dead heat.