cdymek's Blog!

Can it be? The bearish sentiment of the US Business Outlook section of BusinessWeek (April 28) is starting to brighten up?

Given the bounce in household spending, it now appears that the weak winter data were distorted by the temporary effects of severe weather, war worries, and higher energy prices, all of which are now turning around. That was true for industrial production, which fell 0.5% in March, after a 0.1% dip in February. Excluding a weather-related drop in utilities output, production fell only 0.2% last month, and all of that reflects a drop in only one sector, auto output. Even there, the return of cheap financing should boost car sales this spring and lift production schedules.

Just two weeks ago we were reading how the end was near (April 14).

THE GROWING CONCERN is that the economy’s weaker-than-expected showing so far this year will continue into the second half. The main worry is consumer spending, which fell in January and February and doesn’t appear to be bouncing back in March, according to weekly store surveys. That suggests that real consumer outlays, as they enter into the gross domestic product data, grew at an annual rate of only about 1% in the first quarter. That would be the weakest quarterly showing for consumer spending in 10 years.

Oh well, now we just need to get through “this sham of a recovery”.

I’m quite excited, coming in the next few weeks are the theatrical releases of the X-Men and Matrix sequels. While I normally don’t care much for big budget action movies or sequels, I’m thrilled for these two!

I was reviewing the SARS Worldwide Infection Count, and I noticed something I thought intriguing. Though Japan often receives a great deal of prestige and respect in certain areas within the world, the lack of SARS cases can be used as an indicator of one of two things. It either indicates that despite Tokyo’s reputation as a major international destination, it has remained farther outside the interconnectedness that has come about through the process of globalization over the past ten years, or, that Japan’s healthcare system is inadequate and unable to identify the disease.

Dogs and Demons, a well-written examination of modern Japan, paints a critical picture in both these areas. According to Kerr, doctors, inventors, and other professionals, often at the top of their professions, are leaving the country to head overseas. Corporations, too, are looking outside Japan; Sony was willing to take massigve losses in Hollywood when it purchased Columnia Pictures: there would be no purpose in buying or developing Japanese movie studios, since the Japanese movie industry had almost completed collapsed. The Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), set up a fund to invest in entrepenuers, but JETRO has a condition that young tigers move to the United States and learn how to do business there. Okabe [owner of a company that makes software for digital effects] sells software in the United States because he cannot find buyers at home. But perhaps the most distressing point he makes is the fate of the ex-pat community.
The elite of fast-track investment bankers who were stationed in Japan transferred to Hong Kong and Singapore in the early 1990s, leaving second-string players in Tokyo. Long-established foreign communities in Kobe and Yokohama, dating to Meiji days, have shrunk to nearly the vanishing point, and international schools are closing.

This alone would seem to account for much of the discrepency among the SARS case count. After all, even as domestic tourism waned, the number of Japanese traveling abroad nearly quardupled, from 5 million in 1985 to almost 16 million people in 1998. By 1999 this had risen to a record 17 million, with no end to the increase in sight; significantly, a high percentage of these travelers were what the Japan Travel Bureau (JTB) calles “repeaters”, for whom travel abroad is a “habitual practice.” So, it is very likely that in fact tourists and business travelers have come and gone to Hong Kong and other infected regions. Why, else, then might there not be a larger incidence of SARS? After all, even Vietnam has identified more than sixty cases.

A single quote from the book, which is an exercept from an interview with a section chief at the Ministry of Health and Welfare, from March 29, 1997.

Interviewer: Does the Ministry of Health and Welfare have any policy for dealing with dioxin?
Section Chief: There is no policy whatsoever.
Interviewer: Has the MHW conducted any investigation concerning dioxin?
Section Chief: No idea.
Interviewer: Do you have any idea how much dioxin is out there?
Section Chief: No, we have not.
Interviewer: Have you set any guidelines for dioxin?
Section Chief: No, we have not.
Interviewer: Do you plan to?
Section Chief: No.
Interviewer: Do you have controls on dioxin emissions?
Section Chief: No.

In an example of incredible ignorance, a government official is essentially indicating that, in 1997, they have no concern over one of the most toxic substances known. How can it be that the second largest economy on the planet is run by a government that, in 1997, indicated it had no awareness of the issue. According to enjet.org, The International Agency for Research on Cancer [IARC] –part of the World Health Organization –announced February 14, 1997, that the most potent dioxin, 2,3,7,8-TCDD, is a now considered a Class 1 carcinogen, meaning a “known human carcinogen.” and that A draft report released for public comment in September 1994 by the US Environmental Protection Agency clearly describes dioxin as a serious public health threat. Would it then be any surprise that such a government would not be able to adequately identify any potential SARS cases, even if there were more than 2?

I truly enjoyed my time in Japan (both times) for the culture, both modern and “historical”. I specifically read news articles from Japan, enjoy consuming Japanese anime, and try to search out translated works of Japanese literature. I plan to take up the language (I’m registering for a language course at the Japan Society in New York at the end of May/beginning of June). But when I read Alex Kerr’s book, it had confirmed something I felt was strange during my two week trip and reconfirmed during my brief stopover in January. The homogenous nature of the population, the intensely youth-focused populare culture, and the “concretization” of the landscape are all very obvious, once you really look. It is unbelievable that a country could have no non-concrete-basin rivers, or, of that size, to have more dams than the United States. Reviewing the SARS cases just brought home some of the points made in the book.

A comment from a SARS article on BusinessWeek:

SARS is causing economic havoc across Asia, threatening countless small businesses with bankruptcy and large ones with big losses. But some companies long ago set up contingency plans in response to September 11, anthrax attacks, and other disasters that they are now getting a chance to test out — and adapt to meet a new kind of threat.

“Divide to survive” is the essence of all these strategies. FedEx Corp. (FDX ), which has a major operation in Hong Kong, broke its call center staff into two teams and located them on different floors. If SARS closes down one call center, FedEx has another with 40 operators at the ready. “We are also taking critical work groups and splitting them into isolated cells, so if there is a case of SARS, we can continue with the others,” explains David L. Cunningham, president of FedEx’ Asia Pacific operations.

I just find it interesting that businesses, in order to cope with unspecified threats, are adopting a cell model, splitting groups in to autonomous units that can function regardless of whether another group is disrupted. After all, isn’t that how Al Qaeda operates?

From a business perspective, the added layer of redundancy must be nice, but I imagine that it takes its toll on productivity and resource management.

This weekend through yesterday featured great progress in finishing up the new Zelda game. Not only did I manage to catch up to most of my co-workers, but I just need to round up a few triforce maps and their shards and its on to the end (I hope!). With any luck, I’ll be done before I leave for Quebec this coming weekend.

Speaking of which, it is unfortunate that my French is not better. I was trying to read the descriptions of some theatre performances for Saturday night, but I couldn’t be sure I understood everything I was reading. And, unsurprisingly, they didn’t necessarily post English descriptions. So, I’m still trying to decide if I want to see “Il etait une fois un cabaret”, even if I don’t know for sure what it’s about.

There was some quality Zelda progress today. This weekend I completed both the Earth Temple and the Wind Temple. Now it’s off to find the eight triforce shards! 🙂 Isn’t my life so exciting?

In other news, the standard Easter festivities were quite pleasant this year. I’m not sure if my family was more mild, or I’m simple more used to them. But, I won’t ask, I’ll just accept and be happy. So, Happy Easter!

Damn! Damn damn damn! I’m stuck in Zelda. Wholly, 100% stuck. This should be easy, too, but I don’t know what I’m supposed to do and I really, really don’t want to cheat by looking it up on the Internet.

The Times notes that the Arab press is now cultivating the idea that “if chemical, biological or nuclear weapons are found in Iraq, it will be because the American military planted them there.”
–Slate’s Today’s Papers

Does anybody actually read this? 🙂

Remember back in the first entry on this topic, I quoted statistics that said 45% of US oil consumption, or about 8.9 Million bbl/d, go to motor gasonline, essentially to power automobiles and trucks. Imagine, for a moment, that in 2010, instead of having drilled some holes in the ground up in Alaska, a huge undertaking occurred to switch us to a new, cheaper, alternative power source that would essentially eliminate the need for motor gasonline. In the blink of an eye, nearly 75% of the oil the US imported would no longer be necessary. Want energy independence? Congress should adopt a hydrogen-friendly policy, not waste time on ANWR votes.

While there are technical difficulties that remain with hydrogen-based energy sources, solutions are under development. With the right stimulus from the government, the timeframe to resolution would only be accelerated. In fact, both Wired Magazine and BusinessWeek recently outlined a plan to speed the adoption of what is being termed the “hydrogen economy”.

Wired’s plan consists of five components, which I will show below:

1. Solve the hydrogen fuel-tank problem.
2. Encourage mass production of fuel cell vehicles.
3. Convert the nation’s fueling infrastructure to hydrogen.
4. Ramp up hydrogen production.
5. Mount a public campaign to sell the hydrogen economy.

BusinessWeek, coming from an econimic perspective, outlines these steps:
1. Diversify Oil Supplies (Suddenly, the “No Blood for Oil” protests don’t seem quite so misguided. I’m sure securing Iraq’s oil reserves doesn’t hurt when considering energy policy, even if I don’t believe that had anything to do with the primary motivation behind the invasion).
2. Use Strategic Reserves
3. Boost Industrial Efficiency
4. Raise Car and Truck MPG
5. Nurture Renewable Energy
6. Phase in Fuel Taxes

If the politicians wanted to truly accomplish energy independence, these would be a solid basis from which to begin. A sufficient rise in the Fuel Tax, with a corresponding cut in the Payroll Tax (so as not to increase the regressive nature of these taxes), would spur gains in fuel efficieny. If the price of oil were to double in the next two years, to levels closer to those found in Europe, drivers would feel the pinch and adapt accordingly. The added benefit would be to have gasoline prices more accurately reflect the cost of securing those supplies, such as the constant supply of aid sent to Middle Eastern countries, the cost of maintaining large forces in oil-rich regions, and the cost associated with terrorism that is spurred on by the regimes the US supports to help secure those supplies.

Combined with that, further research spending, on energy sources such as hydrogen, would do wonders to move from a dependence on any oil. To that end, the proposal by Wired of allocating $100 billion as a sum toward the research, development, and conversion to a hydrogen-based economy seems like a drop in the bucket. Considering $80 billion was spent on the war in Iraq already, and there is likely to be far more funding allocated to support reconstruction, dropping $100 billion on hydrogen power seems like nothing. President Bush is prepared to spend $300 billion to provide tax-free dividends, whereas the long term gain from hydrogen power would be far more clearly defined.

If all this seems so easy on the surface, the real question is why these policies have not been adopted? To that end, I would suppose that it takes a kind of character that appears to be lacking on a federal level. No one wants to “stick their neck out”, so to speak, so instead the debate about ANWR rages on, serving as a continued distraction from any sort of meaningful debates on true energy independence. Which is all part of why I can’t find the desire to donate any money to the Dems right now.